On pace to breach the cycle envelope in 8 months
412 of 700 annual cycles used by month 5. Arbitrage cycling has run harder than the warranty throughput assumes.
If unfixed: Envelope breached in Q4. Further throughput falls outside warranty and the cell-life cost is borne by the owner, not the OEM.
Cap discretionary cycling on Bay City, or shift dispatch to Corpus and Dallas III, which hold the most cycle headroom.
The full provenance behind this number: inputs, the calculation, the underlying series, and the source.
- Cycles used YTD
- 412 of 700
- Elapsed
- month 5 of 12
- Projected annual cycles
- ~989
- Cycle envelope
- 700 / yr
- Projected overage
- ~289 cycles
$210K = ~289 projected cycles beyond the 700 envelope x marginal cell-life cost outside warranty.
Shifting the throughput to Dallas III and Corpus keeps the dispatch revenue and still avoids the warranty overage. Dispatch value is an assumed $72/MWh basis, not a live market figure.
Action timeline
Raised, actioned, expired
- Raised2026-06-11
- Projected envelope breach · 130 days
Cycle burn-rate projection first crossed the envelope in the month-4 settlement run.
Related contract
What this exposure is measured against