Exposure queue

On pace to breach the cycle envelope in 8 months

WarningSMT Bay CityCycle envelope10 MW · CATL · Wartsila
At risk
-$210K
-$210,000

412 of 700 annual cycles used by month 5. Arbitrage cycling has run harder than the warranty throughput assumes.

If unfixed: Envelope breached in Q4. Further throughput falls outside warranty and the cell-life cost is borne by the owner, not the OEM.

Recommended action

Cap discretionary cycling on Bay City, or shift dispatch to Corpus and Dallas III, which hold the most cycle headroom.

Evidence

The full provenance behind this number: inputs, the calculation, the underlying series, and the source.

Inputs used
Cycles used YTD
412 of 700
Bay City EMS (Wartsila)
Elapsed
month 5 of 12
2026 contract year
Projected annual cycles
~989
412 / 5 x 12 run rate
Cycle envelope
700 / yr
CATL cycle warranty
Projected overage
~289 cycles
989 projected less 700 envelope
The calculation

$210K = ~289 projected cycles beyond the 700 envelope x marginal cell-life cost outside warranty.

Projected cycles beyond envelope~289
Marginal cell-life cost per over-cycleassumed basis
Owner-borne cell-life cost$210,000
Underlying CYCLES series, last 90 days
Revenue at stakeAssumed
Dispatch revenue forgone
$150K
Warranty cost avoided
$210K

Shifting the throughput to Dallas III and Corpus keeps the dispatch revenue and still avoids the warranty overage. Dispatch value is an assumed $72/MWh basis, not a live market figure.

Source Bay City · CATL cycle warranty · EMS cycle counter YTD 2026

Action timeline

Raised, actioned, expired

  1. Raised
    2026-06-11
  2. Projected envelope breach · 130 days

Cycle burn-rate projection first crossed the envelope in the month-4 settlement run.

Related contract

What this exposure is measured against

Warranty floor SOH90.0%
Availability guarantee98.0%
Cycle envelope700/yr
RTE warranted85.0%
Augmentation cost basis$182/kWh
Contract term10 years