Exposure queue

Availability 96.0% vs 98% Axpo guarantee

CriticalSMT Harlingen IIAvailability10 MW · BYD · Fluence
At risk
-$480K
-$480,000

String 3 has been offline 6 days after an inverter trip, pulling availability below the 98% floor on the 7-year availability swap.

If unfixed: Settlement period closes at 96%, triggering the shortfall penalty band on the Axpo swap.

Recommended action

Restore String 3 and file the availability exception before period close to reclaim the guaranteed downtime allowance.

Evidence

The full provenance behind this number: inputs, the calculation, the underlying series, and the source.

Inputs used
Availability this period
96.0%
Harlingen II EMS (Fluence), 2026-Q2
Contracted guarantee
98.0%
Axpo 7-yr availability swap, sch. 2
Shortfall vs guarantee
-2.0 pts
Settlement calc, 2026-Q2
String 3 downtime
6 days
Inverter trip event 2026-07-08
Contracted capacity
10 MW / 20 MWh
Harlingen II contract terms
The calculation

$480K = availability shortfall across the settlement period priced at the Axpo swap shortfall penalty band.

Availability vs 98% guarantee-2.0 pts
Settlement exposure basis10 MW capacity swap
Axpo shortfall penalty bandtriggered
Penalty exposure$480,000
Underlying AVAILABILITY series, last 90 days
Source Harlingen II · Axpo 7-yr availability swap sch. 2 · 2026-Q2 settlement

Action timeline

Raised, actioned, expired

  1. Raised
    2026-07-09
  2. Axpo settlement period close · 11 days

Raised on the String 3 inverter trip. Availability crossed below the 98% guarantee the same settlement day.

Related contract

What this exposure is measured against

CounterpartyAxpo
Warranty floor SOH90.0%
Availability guarantee98.0%
Cycle envelope700/yr
RTE warranted85.0%
Augmentation cost basis$182/kWh
Contract term10 years