SMT Harlingen II

10 MW / 20 MWh · BYD · Fluence · COD 2024

CriticalDegraded ERCOTSMT Harlingen II LLCAxpo (7yr availability swap)
SOH vs warranty floor
93.2%
3.2 pts above the 90% floor
Cycles used YTD
280/700
Projected ~672 /yr · 420 cycles headroom
Availability vs guarantee
2.0pts
96.0%
this settlement period vs 98% guarantee
$ at risk on this site
-$480K
Rollup of 1 open exposures

Period comparison

The reason is the point, not the delta

+1.3 ptsbetter
This week45.5%Last week44.2%

SOC up 1.32 pts vs last week.

Availability analytics

Click any day for root cause, forecast and revenue impact

Event intelligence
Penalty riskJul 11 – Jul 15 · 5d · outage-2.2 ptsvs normal
Lowest that day
96.0%
Normal 98.2%
Below guarantee
5d
under 98% line
Revenue impact
-$480K
Contracted figure
What happened

Harlingen II is at 96.0% availability — 2.0 pts under the 98% Axpo guarantee — because String 3 has been offline 6 days after an inverter trip. On current trend the settlement period closes inside the shortfall penalty band in 11 days (Jul 26). Estimated settlement loss: $480K.

Predictive analysis

On the current trend the period closes at ~96.0%, triggering the Axpo shortfall penalty band. Settlement closes in 11 days — restoring String 3 now is the only path to clear the band.

11 days of runway before it settles
Recommended action

Highest-ROI action: restore String 3 and file the availability exception before the Jul 26 settlement close. Expected recovery: $480K — the full penalty band cleared.

Recommendations for this site

Plain English, ranked by impact

  1. 1

    Restore String 3 and file the availability exception before period close to reclaim the guaranteed downtime allowance.

    SMT Harlingen II·-$480K

Contract position

Money-attached, each figure carries its evidence

Warranty envelope (cycles)
420 cycles headroom · 8 yrs term remaining
280 / 700
Availability vs guarantee
-2.0 pts vs 98% guarantee
96.0%
RTE vs warranted
+0.4 pts vs 85% warranted
85.4%

Warranty floor trajectory

Measured SOH vs warranted curve vs the contract floor

Above floor through the horizon
Measured SOH
Projected
Warranted curve
Floor 90%

Open alerts

1 current open findings on this site

Full queue →
Availability 96.0% vs 98% Axpo guaranteeAvailability11d · Axpo settlement period close

String 3 has been offline 6 days after an inverter trip, pulling availability below the 98% floor on the 7-year availability swap.

-$480KOpen

Digital twin

Container and rack severity · click a flagged rack to open its finding

CriticalWarningWinnerHealthy
20 MWh · 10 racks3 racks flagged

Rack-level view, kept shallow by design. B9 stays at the contractual and financial layer, not cell diagnostics.